White fused alumina spot prices rose amid higher raw material cost, but increases in China are steeper compared with elsewhere as continuing environmental pressure restricted output amid stronger domestic demand.

Spiralling raw material cost is lifting white fused alumina (WFA) spot prices as Chinese producers raised their offers, market sources told IM.

Alumina is the key raw material used to produce WFA, and recent restocking from Chinese aluminium smelters have pushed prices up by about 40% since October.

Chinese domestic alumina prices was assessed at a range of 2,700-2,850 yuan ($390-412)/tonne on a delivered in China basis, up from 2,650-2,800 yuan a week earlier, according to IM’s sister publication Metal Bulletin on Thursday November 24.

Driven by the uptrend in China, alumina prices elsewhere in the world is also rising. Inferred alumina index on a FOB Brazil basis, the reference for European smelters, was calculated at $318.47/dry metric ton, up $17.02/ton compared to a fortnight ago, according to Metal Bulletin this week.

As smelters’ alumina purchased volume are often much bigger compared with WFA producers, with the average standard cargo size at 30,000-35,000 tonnes, the former could secure lower volume-related prices.

One WFA producer in China has quoted alumina prices as high as 3,000 yuan ($433.50)/tonne, and he had to raise his WFA offers to reflect higher raw material and production cost.

Spot refractory-grade WFA (99.0% Al2O3 min, in 25kg bags) prices were assessed at €650-680/tonne on a CIF Europe basis, up €27.50/tonne compared with the previous week, according to IM’s assessment on 24 November.

Materials for spot delivery in Germany traded in the region of €680/tonne on a DAP basis, one Europe-based producer told IM.

Stronger demand, reduced supply in China

Due to the Chinese government’s anti-pollution crackdown on many production facilities in China since July, many fused-alumina plants that did not meet environmental standards were shut down. The shut down were particularly severe in Henan province, one of the main regions for fused-alumina production.
As a result, reduced WFA supply amid firm domestic demand is supporting prices in China, producers in the country said.

Chinese-origin WFA were trading in the region of 5,000 yuan (€682.45)/tonne on an ex-work basis within China, according to two suppliers.

Many expect strict anti-pollution checks to remain in China for the long-term, and consequently, the restricted production is expected to support WFA prices in the country.

In contrast, WFA supply in Europe were not disrupted and the region remained well-supplied amid weak refractory demand. Consequently, European product prices did not receive the strong boost like its Chinese counterpart.

China is one of the biggest fused alumina producer in the world.

Monthly production of chromite with 44-48% Cr2O3 content was down both on a sequential and year-on-year basis, as reduced mining capacity is denting overall sales volumes.

South African output of high-purity chromite fell in October after a surge in the previous month, while the latest output remained some 15,000 tonnes below the same time in 2015, government data provided to IM shows.

Total production of chromite with 44-48% Cr2O3 content stood at 181,847 tonnes in October, marking a 7% decrease year-on-year (y-o-y). This follows capacity shutdowns that took place in the country during the 2015/16 phase of weak markets.

The October output fell also on a sequential basis after production peaked in September to close to 188,000 tonnes, a record-high for 2016 to date.

Total sales, including domestic and exports, stood at 122,418 tonnes for the month. This was 12% down on September and almost one-quarter (24%) below October 2015 sales.

Sources active in the chrome industry in South Africa told IM this week that «supply will remain below 2015 levels for the foreseeable future», citing the closure of a number of mines and processing operations, such as Dilokong Chrome and MTI.

«Availability is particularly tight for the underground-mined ores, as underground mines were the first to close when prices were low due to high operational costs,» one local producer told IM.

Shipping operations at the country’s main ports – Richards’ Bay and Durban – were affected by low availability of vessels in the late months of 2016, prompting delays as sellers were unable to secure cargo space on ships.
Exports accounted for over 60% of total volume sales in October.

Domestic sales generated a turnover of South African rand (Zar) 83.6m ($6.3m), while exports were worth Zar 191.1m. At the same time, both the local and export markets have remained a notch below the levels of trade seen in late 2015, further showing that the overall mining capacity in South Africa has shrunk in size.

Prices
The export market for chromite meanwhile remained quiet and stable over the past fortnight against the levels it reached at the end of December.

Suppliers ascribed the lack of business to the impending Chinese New Year holiday period, which starts 27 January.

In the words of a European supplier, «China was instrumental in driving prices upwards last year, both for met and non met chrome».

«We’ll have to see what strategies they put forward after the holidays,» he added.

IM is currently tracking prices of chemical chromite, 46% Cr2O3, wet bulk at a range of $430-440/tonne FOB South Africa, unchanged compared with previous weeks.

Foundry grade chromite, 46% Cr2O3, wet bulk, is meanwhile priced at a range of $410-450/tonne FOB South Africa.

The surge in export prices in the second half of last year prompted miner Afarak Trading to look to reopen its opencast mine in Mecklenburg, the company confirmed to IM this month.

The company is also looking to develop an underground operation at the site, with a view to fill part of the gap in supply of underground-extracted LG chrome ore. Works are expected to start soon.

South Africa is world’s largest supplier of chrome ore, which is used in a number of metallurgical and non metallurgical applications alike. While low-grade UG2 chrome ore (usually with a 40-42% Cr2O3content) is one of the main met grades, non met industries including chemicals, foundry and refractories employ higher-purity chromite, with a chrome content above 44%.

Some LG chrome of 44% Cr2O3 and above is also used in met applications.

Besides South Africa, other producers of the mineral include India, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Pakistan.

El pasado 23 de febrero tuvieron lugar en la sede de ANFRE en Madrid la Junta Directiva, la Asamblea General, y las reuniones de los Comités Técnico y de Montadores.

Como viene siendo habitual en las últimas reuniones hemos tenía aforo completo. Tenemos que agradecer, una vez más, a los asociados de ANFRE su asistencia y apoyo incondicional, ya que sin cada uno de ellos ANFRE no sería posible.

En estas reuniones hemos intentado organizar el trabajo de todo el año e ir cerrando asuntos pendientes de reuniones anteriores. Desde el Comité de Montadores se están dando las últimas pinceladas del Curso de Montadores que pretendemos lanzar para finales de 2017.

De esta reunión ha salido también un acuerdo de Colaboración con la Sociedad Española de Cerámica y Vidrio, acuerdo que esperamos sea muy gratificante para ambas partes.

Queríamos aprovechar estas líneas para desearle lo mejor a uno de nuestros Asociados, Primitivo Castro. Después de su apoyo incondicional y su participación activa en la Asociación durante muchísimos años, ha llegado el momento de la merecida jubilación. Esperamos de todo corazón que esta nueva etapa de su vida sea tan satisfactoria como la anterior. Recordarle que ANFRE siempre le recibirá con los brazos abiertos.

Una vez finalizadas las reuniones los asociados se han podido relajar durante la comida ofrecida por ANFRE.

Agradecemos de nuevo vuestra asistencia y apoyo, esperamos seguir contando con todos vosotros.

Os esperamos en Junio.

The historian R.G. Collingwood believed, as do many others, that only by studying the past can the present and perhaps future be better understood. Whilst most people have a good grasp of where they currently are, almost everyone would ideally like to have more information to try to establish where they may be going in the future.

It often helps to look back at the past, to see how the present situation has evolved from it and the factors an trends which perhaps may still bear an influence on circumstances in the future…

More information. Download .PDF

Emirates Global Aluminium chief executive Abdulla Kalban says he expects fierce Chinese competition to keep a lid on world aluminium prices for the next couple of years.

EGA is one of the world’s top 10 aluminium producers but is heavily reliant on export markets to sell its product, where it meets competition from China, which has five companies in the world’s top 10 producers alone, and its total accounts for nearly 60 per cent of world production.

Aluminium producers in the GCC «are trying to mitigate the threat to market share but the Chinese are everywhere, in Europe, Asia, everywhere,» said Mr Kalban.

«The oversupply position is mainly because of the Chinese [and for] primary aluminium production there is concern from our consumers because of severe competition from the Chinese, including into our local markets in the UAE. I don’t expect we’ll see good prices for the next couple of years and most companies are in pain.»

Aluminium prices have recovered some ground since the start of the year, with futures prices on the London Metal Exchange gaining about 10 per cent to about US$1,620 per tonne.

But despite fairly steady increases in aluminium demand worldwide, supply additions have run ahead of demand and resulted in chronic oversupply. That has been exacerbated by a slowing in demand growth, especially in China.

World production last month was 4.9 million tonnes, of which China produced at least 2.8 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. (It did not have an estimate for China’s «unreported» production, which could have added several hundred thousand tonnes more.)

The next largest producing region was the GCC, with output of 426,000 tonnes, 70 to 80 per cent of which must find a market outside the region, according to Mohammed Al Naki, the chairman of Arab International Aluminium Conference (Arabal), which will meet next month in Dubai for its annual gathering.

«It is not only GCC producers suffering from China; Europe and others are suffering from China too,» Mr Al Naki said.

The Middle East region has been one of the fastest growing markets for aluminium demand, but capacity additions have grown substantially since the world financial crisis: from 2.24 million tonnes per annum (tpa) in 2008 – or about 6 per cent of world capacity – to 5.59 million tpa last year, or about 10 per cent of world capacity.
There is strong demand from construction and transport sectors, but the region needs to build capacity downstream in areas like tyre and other automobile parts manufacturing to secure more of the GCC final demand market, Mr Al Naki said.

The world aluminium industry has been consolidating in recent years in response to the rise of Chinese producers, which includes top 10 producers Chalco, Hongqiao, CPI, Xinfa and East Hope. That included the US$38 billion merger in 2007 of Rio Tinto and Alcan of Canada, and the creation three years ago of EGA from the $15bn merger of Dubal and Emal.

The world’s largest single producer, Rusal of Russia, benefits from being fully vertically integrated, with both bauxite and cheap energy within its borders.

Mr Kalban said EGA is pursuing its own vertical integration strategy, with a $3bn alumina refinery at Al Taweelah, Abu Dhabi, due for completion in early 2018 (originally scheduled for the end of next year).

EGA owns bauxite producer Guinea Alumina Corp and a 45 per cent stake in bauxite miner Cameroon Alumina.
In June, EGA approved a project to develop an initial 12 million tpa bauxite mine in Guinea, which will include construction of an export terminal at Port of Kamsar and rail infrastructure upgrades, with the first production due in 2018.